Weekly Outlook

The week gone by witnessed tremendous pressure both in the equity markets and the INR.
It seems markets are over reacting to the imminent tapering of the monetary stimulus program
by the US Federal Reserve Bank.    It also appears that the markets have overshot the fundamentals.

Having said that,  there is further room for Nifty on the upside.    Going forward,  markets will be
treading through intense volatility.
    

Global Economic Parameters

Country                                                 Business Confidence         Consumer Confidence
---------                                                    --------------------------                ----------------------------

China                                                              50.30                               97.00
Euro Area                                                        -0.53                              -17.40
France                                                             87.00                               81.62
Germany                                                        106.20                              42.00
India                                                               51.20                              118.00
UK                                                                   7.00                              -16.00
USA                                                                55.40                              80.30

Market Outlook

The past several trading sessions witnessed rampant selling in the markets causing Nifty
to dangerously test long term averages on the downside.    Some of the sectoral indices
too have been hammered out of shape.    Further, there seems to be no end to the woes
of the INR.    No matter what measures are taken by the government or the RBI, the
continuing weakness in the INR just doesn't seem to abate.    The general risk off in the
global environment too is further aggravating the bearishness.

Nifty is trading in an oversold zone.    Therefore, going forward, a possible rebound can
not be ruled out.    Lastly, no matter what, Nifty must hold above 5500.    Nifty closing
below 5475 -- 5500 zone does not augur well.

Market Synopsis

Earnings downgrade and the continuing depreciation of INR vis a vis the USD pushed
the equity markets southward in this week.    The only factor that saved the markets
from an absolute bloodbath was the US Federal Reserve's decision to continue with its
monetary stimulus program.

Going forward, markets will continue to remain under pressure.    Traders may adopt a
sell on rise policy.

Weekly Outlook

The RBI policy meet on July 30 may turn out to be a non-event given the fact that it has
already taken number of measures at addressing the immediate troubles facing the
economy.

Nifty, for the coming week, may find it difficult to trade above 5960 -- 5980 range.
However, the sentiment will continue to remain bearish with an eye on the upcoming
results.

Despite the various measures taken by the RBI,  INR is failing to close below Rs.59.
The past week saw rupee trading in the range of Rs. 59 -- Rs. 59.70 vis a vis the USD.
A close above Rs. 59.90, which seems to be unlikely at least for the near term, would
indicate fresh weakness.